By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The dollar sloughed off weak U.S. data to steady on Thursday as investors focused on signs the trade war may be cooling down, while the yen was waiting on a central bank meeting in Japan.
The dollar notched its largest monthly fall for 2-1/2 years through April, as President Donald Trump’s flip-flopping tariffs hit growth expectations and rattled confidence. But it has come off lows as Trump has suspended much of the hit and hinted at deals, including with China which has the highest levies.
Overnight the dollar was about 0.5% stronger against the euro to trade at $1.1328 per euro in the Asia morning. It rose by a similar amount against sterling and the yen, leaving it at $1.3323 per pound and at 142.93 yen on Thursday.
“We’re in a window here where we’re on a de-escalation path, and there are some de-escalation trades around it,” said Richard Franulovich, Westpac’s head of currency strategy in Sydney.
Trump said on television on Wednesday that he has “potential” trade deals with India, South Korea and Japan and that there is a very good chance of cutting a deal with China.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer had said earlier on Wednesday that no official talks were happening with China.
A surge in imports to front-run tariffs dragged GDP growth into negative territory in the first quarter, U.S. data showed overnight, though some economists took private demand holding up as a positive sign.
Jobless claims and the ISM manufacturing survey are due later on Thursday, though April jobs figures on Friday will be the next piece of hard data markets will use to gauge recession risks.
Expectations are for a slowdown in hiring to 130,000.
Before then the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meets in Tokyo, with Trump’s trade war throwing their slow-and-steady rate hike trajectory into question. No policy move is expected, the focus being on the outlook and the central bank’s thinking on the economy and currency as Japan negotiates its U.S. trade deal.
The dollar, which traded below 140 yen at one stage last month, could extend its recovery if the BOJ pushes back on the prospect of further rate hikes this year, said Peter Dragicevich, Asia-Pacific currency strategist at Corpay.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars stood steady against the dollar and are trading in the top half of recent channels.
The Aussie ticked up 0.2% to $0.6413 with some support as a very slightly hotter-than-expected inflation reading toned down some of the more dovish bets on the rates trajectory. The New Zealand dollar held its ground at $0.5940.
(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Stephen Coates)
Comments