By Anna Szymanski
LONDON (Reuters) -By Anna Szymanski, ROI Editor-in-Charge, and the ROI team
Hello Morning Bid readers!
Warnings about a stock market bubble grew louder this week, with the Bank of England, IMF and JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon all expressing concern about the potential economic fallout if Wall Street were to suddenly stop defying gravity. Meanwhile, another epic rally – the runup in gold above $4,000 per ounce – stalled on Thursday, likely reflecting profit-taking following the yellow metal’s more than 50% rise this year.
ROI editor-at-large Mike Dolan this week took a look at the twin rallies in equities and gold, noting that investors may be eager to chase artificial intelligence stocks higher, but they are also hedging fears of a prolonged inflation burst due to lax monetary and fiscal policy in many advanced economies.
If you want to understand why governments across the developed world have turned so dovish, ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever argues you might take a look at a chart that IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva recently spotlighted about the decline in economic mobility.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown has entered its second week. One of the biggest concerns for markets has been the delay of important economic data releases, like monthly jobs figures. But Jamie McGeever argues that investors may not need official data. If they want to know how the economy is doing, they can just look at the stock market.
In energy markets, oil prices rose early in the week on news that the latest OPEC+ supply increase was smaller than expected. However, ROI Energy Columnist Ron Bousso warns that – regardless of the size – the continued oil output increases are eroding OPEC+’s spare production capacity, a vital cushion that has helped to mitigate volatility in recent years.
Oil prices then fell on Thursday, as a ceasefire deal was agreed to by Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
Geopolitical conflict remains a serious risk to energy markets, however. Ron Bousso points out that Russia’s heavy bombardment of Ukraine’s natural gas infrastructure ahead of winter could have a knock-on impact on Europe’s energy market.
On the renewables side, ROI Energy Transition Columnist Gavin Maguire highlights the extent of China’s clean energy dominance and explains why Texas’s main power generation system is on track for a rare contraction in fossil fuel-fired generation this year.
And, finally, over in the metals world, ROI Metals Columnist Andy Home discusses the impact of Indonesia’s crackdown on illegal tin mining and then explores how the Democratic Republic of Congo is seeking to tame the notoriously volatile cobalt market.
As we head into the weekend, check out the ROI team’s recommendations for what you should read, listen to, and watch to stay informed and ready for the week ahead.
I’d love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at
This weekend, we’re reading…
ANDY HOME, ROI Metals Columnist: My most interesting read this week is a Rand research paper on deep-sea mining, an area receiving a lot of interest as the world searches for more battery metals to power the energy transition. There are undoubtedly rich deposits below the oceans, but the problem is, who’s going to process them into metal?
RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: I recommend the IEA’s outlook for renewables, published this week. The headline growth forecast anticipates enormous expansion of renewables over the next five years, particularly in solar power. However, the report also reveals the challenges the sector faces due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s hostility towards renewables and the impact of rising costs on the offshore wind sector.
GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transition Columnist: This recent Reuters analysis explains why rising tungsten prices are causing a fresh headache for U.S. oil drillers. U.S. energy firms are already feeling the sting of inflation as their overall extraction costs rise, and now Chinese export controls on this ultra-hard metal, which is used for drill bits, is making things worse,
We’re listening to…
MIKE DOLAN, ROI Financial Markets Editor-at-Large: Brookings’s latest weekly podcast looks at why U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures by other countries are putting pressure on the dollar’s place at the heart of world monetary system.
ANNA SZYMANSKI, ROI Editor-in-Charge: A gaping hole in the national finances is at the heart of France’s political crisis. Can a tax on the super-rich help? In the latest episode of Reuters Econ World, Carmel Crimmins talks to Paris-based senior correspondent Leigh Thomas and Francesco Canepa, senior European economics correspondent, about the pros and cons of taxing wealth.
And we’re watching…
JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: In this WealthWise vodcast, Bob Elliott, CEO and CIO of Unlimited Funds, gives his views on the sustainability of the current market rally and how to diversify.
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(By Anna Szymanski.)
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