WASHINGTON, Aug 13 (Reuters) – A trio of emerging economic forces could boost global production of electric vehicles with implications for oil, power and metal markets, a report from Wood Mackenzie said on Thursday.
The forces are oil supply shocks from wars in petroleum-producing countries Russia and Iran pushing governments to speed investment in supply chains, high fuel prices prompting consumers to switch to EVs, and technological innovation, the report found.
• China is making rapid progress on battery technologies, including 5-minute charging and both sodium-ion batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries. Western countries could use government support to boost innovation, the report said.
• Policymakers around the world may find that increased licensing of Chinese EV technology is needed to boost resilience to oil prices as well as ramping up domestic supply chains.
• Global oil demand could fall to 99 million barrels per day in 2040, from above 100 million bpd today.
• Abundant oil supplies in the U.S. keep its EV market share rising from 3% today to only 20% by 2040, WoodMac forecast. In Europe, which has high oil import dependence, EV market share should rise from 3% in 2025 to 35% by 2040.
• “There’s this tidal wave of EV innovation outside of the US, and in this scenario, the United States has to take electrification of transport seriously and fund new EV supply chains, new EV manufacturing, really to stay competitive with EV imports from other countries and to stay competitive abroad,” David Brown, one of the report’s authors, told Reuters.
• Supply of minerals globally could support 50% growth in global EVs by 2040. The challenge is how quickly that new supply can be delivered. The world needs another $45 billion in investment in metals over the next decade. Copper is the critical bottleneck.
• Electric grids and regulators need to expand “managed charging” to shift EV charging to periods when there’s ample power supply.
(Reporting by Timothy Gardner;Editing by Elaine Hardcastle)
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