A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee
A holding pattern in global markets has emerged as traders await earnings from Nvidia that will be a test of confidence in the AI trade while rising hopes of supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices lower in a reprieve for bond yields.
Brent crude futures fell for a third straight day on Wednesday, sliding more than $2 to $86.22 per barrel after Iran said it had restarted talks with neighbour Oman to manage the Strait of Hormuz amid heightened economic pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump. [O/R]
The rising optimism in the face of little evidence of immediate relief to supply challenges suggests investors are setting themselves up, yet again, for disappointment.
Commodity vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz hit their lowest level in three months, underscoring the supply constraints facing the world due to the nearly six-month long conflict.
Then there’s Wednesday’s main event, second-quarter results from Nvidia, the poster child of the AI frenzy. Over the previous 12 quarters, its market value has swung by an average 7.4% following its earnings report. This time, options traders are pricing in a less manic reaction — only a $280 billion or 5.4% move in Nvidia’s market value after it reports.
The U.S. dollar was steady ahead of U.S. PCE inflation data later in the day and Jackson Hole over the weekend, as traders await cues for the monetary policy outlook. Markets have been grappling with the U.S. Treasury department’s move to buy back bonds to help cap a surge in long-end yields.
The move to calm the bond market has piled pressure on the dollar, catapulting spot gold and bitcoin near three-month highs as the “debasement trade” persists.
And finally, we end with the sad news that country music legend Dolly Parton died on Tuesday in Nashville. She was 80.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
• U.S. PCE data
• UK CBI distributive trades for August
(By Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Sonali Paul)
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