BEIJING, May 8(Reuters) – China’s new bank lending likely plummeted to 300 billion yuan ($44.09 billion) in April, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, underscoring persistent weakness in credit demand despite policy support for the world’s second-largest economy.
The loan expectation for April, based on the average estimate of 17 economists polled by Reuters, was roughly one-tenth of the 2.99 trillion yuan distributed in March.
But the forecast was slightly higher than 280 billion yuan extended in April 2025.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to publish loans and money supply data between May 10 and 15.
• Banks generally front-load lending in the first quarter during the traditional sales campaign, making subsequent months appear weaker by comparison.
• Last month, Reuters reported that PBOC has instructed some commercial banks to expand loan issuance in April to prevent a sharp slowdown in credit growth at a time of rising external economic risks caused by the Middle East conflict.
• “The PBOC’s reported window guidance should support credit supply, while the declining bills discount rate, averaged 0.9% in April vs. 1.2% in March, points to limited organic demand for long-term loans,” Citi Research said in a note.
• The expected slowdown reflects lingering stress in the country’s property sector, which has been in a multi-year slump, cautious private investment and subdued household appetite for leverage amid uncertain income prospects.
• China has yet to see the property crisis bottom out despite emerging green shoots, analysts said.
• “Without forceful stimulus, China’s housing market may still contract this year and next, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years,” Macquarie analysts said in a note.
• Broader M2 money supply was expected to have grown 8.5% last month from a year earlier, unchanged from the pace in March, the poll showed.
• Outstanding yuan loans were estimated to have grown 5.8% in April from a year before, picking up from 5.7% growth in March.
• Total social financing – a broad measure of credit and liquidity – likely shrank to 1.5 trillion yuan in April from 5.23 trillion yuan the previous month, but remained above the 1.16 trillion yuan size seen a year earlier.
($1 = 6.8036 Chinese yuan renminbi)
(Reporting by Shi Bu and Kevin Yao, Polling by Pulkit Khanna and Susobhan Sarkar in BENGALURU and Jing Wang in SHANGHAI; Editing by Kim Coghill)
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